Friday, January 23, 2004
* Politics: Four Tickets out of New Hampshire?
Another repost of my diary on DailyKos. If you're interested, do check it out and vote in my poll.
This year is unique. The old conventional wisdom no longer applies. I think that regardless of the outcome on Tuesday, there will be four tickets out of New Hampshire.
Kerry probably wins NH, but his support is an inch deep, as someone said in a recent comment. Dean keeps fighting regardless. Edwards is looking to the future in any event.
The only one of the big four that might not make it out of NH is Clark, and that's only if he comes in distant fourth AND Kerry wins big.
After Tuesday, the race becomes more regional, and each candidate has different strenghths. Each of the big four candidates will start picking up delegates. What happens next? I see three possibilities.
1) Maybe Kerry (or the new front runner, whoever that is) ends up getting so much free media support and so many delegates that he runs away with it.
2) Two of the other four candidates enter into an alliance / ticket. For example, Clark or Edwards, looking at third and fourth place, join up with each other on a Edwards / Clark or a Clark / Edwards ticket. (Pure speculation, but I gotta figure that either one of these guys would prefer to be VP than sitting at home for the next four years). This new uber-team might then make it a race with the front runner.
3) Things stay in flux until the convention, where anything can happen.
Either way, I don't see any of the big four dropping out until February 4 at the earliest.