** Spain and the War on Terror: are the terrorists winning?

On CNN this morning, Jack Cafferty was asking whether the elections in Spain show that the terrorists are winning. The majority of letters that he read in response to this question basically said "yes".

I think that the attack and election show a lot of things, but to reduce it to a statement like "the terrorists are winning" sounds like little more than propaganda. Here's what I think it shows:

• The Spanish government was stupid to lie about ETA, when the lie was so easily exposed. Note to Bush -- pay attention, your lies may come back to haunt you.
• Saddam Hussein is not Al Queda and Iraq is not Afghanistan. The US's invasion of Iraq had little to do with the War on Terror. Smart people understand this. To the extent that the Spanish government was thrown out over Iraq, that does not mean that the Spanish people are soft on terror or pro-Al Queda. No, it just shows that they understand that going to Iraq made the world less safe, not more safe.
• Al Queda has not been destroyed. Bush is right that the War on Terror continues, but he's wrong that we've been fighting it effectively so far.
• The enemy has a vote. The enemy is not stupid. It is now showing that it can precisely focus its resources for maximum impact. If we want to win this war, we have to fight smarter, not just bluster around. If we continue to spend our precious military resources trying to make money for US corporations in Iraq, we could eventually lose the war.

Bottom line, the terrorists are not quite winning, but they're certainly doing better than Bush says they are. Nonetheless, I think the American public will see these elections and rally around Bush, at least in the short term. My prediction is that this will lead to a short term bump in Bush's approval numbers on the order of 5% or so. Kerry needs to go on the offensive and distinguish Iraq from Al Queda. He also needs to think about bringing on a national security person (like Clark) as VP.
- posted by David @ 11:24 AM