Thursday, September 30, 2004
* Debate

OK, there are a billion words about the debate on the Net today, and I'm sure it's the same way on TV. Nobody gives a shit about my two cents, but I will put down my prediction for posterity:

I don't agree with the conventional wisdom that Kerry needs to win the debate to win. I say that Kerry gets the poll bounce from the debate even with a tie or narrow loss on the merits. Just being on stage with Bush will give him the gravitas he needs to win over a percentage of the undecideds. Moreover, he will benefit from becoming a bigger celebrity by virtue of having 40 million people watch him for 90 minutes. Since Bush is already a celebrity, he won't get this benefit.
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