Friday, October 29, 2004
Sorry readers that I've been so busy lately. Obviously much is going on and I'm sure you're getting your fill of content from other news sources and blogs.
In the meantime, if you're thinking about the polls, you need to realize that they are mostly bogus. As this Washington Post article notes, people are screening pollsters calls and avoiding them. Not to mention the cell phone only folks, plus the people who just lie for the fun of it.
I'm pretty happy with the way the election looks, but given the uncertain state of polls, you can't be too overconfident. If Bush manages to somehow pull off Hawaii, Jersey, Wisconsin, or Michigan, it could get ugly.
That being said, I'm going to predict a clean sweep for Kerry in the swing states, except for one outlier that will go to Bush (don't know which one). I do not think that there will be litigation that will decide this election. Why? Turnout. It will be unprecedented this year. Even if a good percentage of a new voters don't vote, a good percentage will, and Kerry holds a decisive advantage there.
Another prediction: on November 3 the newspapers will be doing a lot of talk about the youth vote. I'm from the slacker generation, and it looks like we will remain the slackers -- the youngsters are going to be more politically vocal than we are.
In any event, I may very well post again before the election, but if not I wanted to quickly get down my thoughts for posterity. Unlike Chimpy, I don't mind being held accountable.